NZ election 2026: special votes simulation
About 399,000 special votes from the 2026 New Zealand general election are still to be counted. This simulation counts them 50,000 times, each time leaning the way special votes moved the result in 2017, 2020 and 2023, then works out every seat under MMP and who can govern. It's a Monte Carlo simulation: a model of what could happen, not a forecast.
In those 50,000 simulated counts the government keeps its majority in 34%, Parliament is hung in 22%, and Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have a majority with Opportunity in 44%. The interactive simulator shows the counts landing, and lets you change the assumptions, run your own and share the result.
Who governs after the special votes
| Outcome | Share of counts |
|---|
| National, ACT and NZ First keep their majority | 34% |
| Hung Parliament: Opportunity holds the balance | 22% |
| Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have a majority with Opportunity | 44% |
Where the government lands
Seats for National, ACT and NZ First, against a majority of the final Parliament.
| Government | Share of counts |
|---|
| 3 seats short | under 1% |
| 2 seats short | 13% |
| 1 seat short | 53% |
| Exactly a majority | 31% |
| 1 seat spare | 3% |
What are special votes?
Special votes are cast by people whose vote can't be matched to the printed roll where they vote: most often people who enrolled late or on election day, New Zealanders voting from overseas, and people using the telephone dictation service. Each one is checked before it's counted, so they aren't in the election-night result. The Electoral Commission adds them in the official result, due on 27 November 2026.
The Commission estimates about 399,000 special votes this year; the election-night figure of 297,418 left out overseas and dictation votes. There were about 421,927 in 2017, 502,903 in 2020 and 596,588 in 2023.
How the special votes simulation works
- Pick one way the specials could go. Each party's share of the specials is its election-night share, moved the way it moved in the specials in 2017, 2020 and 2023: a random blend of the three years, plus extra variation, since 2026 needn't look like any of them.
- Add them up. About 399,000 special votes, give or take 2%, are added to the election-night party vote.
- Re-decide the close seats. Every electorate won by under a fifth of its votes is decided again, leaning the way candidates did among special votes in 2023's closer seats.
- Share out the seats. Sainte-Laguë across 120 seats, for parties with 5% of the party vote or an electorate. A party keeps any electorates beyond its share (overhang), which makes Parliament bigger.
- See who can govern. Then do it all again, 50,000 times. The tally of outcomes is the odds: the government kept its majority in 17,092 of the 50,000 counts.
It's like flipping a coin thousands of times to learn how often it lands heads. The random numbers are seeded, so every browser gets exactly the same result as this page.
Why it's close: overhang
National won all 42 of its seats as electorates, but its party vote earns only 35. On election night the government has 67 of 131 seats, and a majority takes 66.
When the specials lean the usual way, National's party vote falls but it keeps its electorates, so another party gains a list seat and Parliament grows to 132. A majority then takes 67. The government lands on 66, and Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori with Opportunity on 66: neither side has a majority.
That's why Wairarapa matters, where National leads by 139. If Labour wins it, Labour loses a list seat, but National loses an overhang seat, so Parliament shrinks to 131 and a majority takes 66. With the usual swing, Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori with Opportunity then have 66.
Seats the special votes could change
- Wellington Bays: Labour leads Green by 140 votes. The seat goes to Green in 87% of counts.
- Wairarapa: National leads Labour by 139 votes. The seat goes to Labour in 66% of counts.
- Hamilton East: National leads Labour by 456 votes. The seat goes to Labour in 19% of counts.
- Te Tai Tokerau: Te Pāti Māori leads Green by 436 votes. The seat goes to Green in 6% of counts.
- Mt Roskill: Labour leads National by 262 votes. The seat goes to National in 4% of counts.
- Whangārei: National leads Labour by 1,092 votes. The seat goes to Labour in 2% of counts.
Party seat totals that move
- Opportunity up a seat, to 8: 87% of counts
- Green up a seat, to 17: 84% of counts
- NZ First down a seat, to 11: 76% of counts
- National down a seat, to 41: 68% of counts
- Labour down a seat, to 35: 23% of counts
- Labour up a seat, to 37: 7% of counts
- Te Pāti Māori down a seat, to 4: 6% of counts
Totals move with the party vote. An electorate changing hands moves a total only where a party has no list seats to give back, as with National.
What moves the odds
| If… | Government | Hung | Left + Opportunity |
|---|
| Opportunity gets no lift from the specials | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| NZ First does as well in the specials as on election night | 71% | 16% | 12% |
| The specials lean like they did in 2023 | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| The specials lean like they did in 2017 | 10% | 18% | 72% |
How special votes moved past elections
Each party's share of the special votes, against its share on election night.
| Party | 2017 | 2020 | 2023 |
|---|
| National | −21% | −26% | −11% |
| Labour | +19% | +10% | +0% |
| Green | +44% | +22% | +37% |
| ACT | −2% | −28% | −18% |
| NZ First | −25% | −15% | −28% |
| Te Pāti Māori | +56% | +93% | +85% |
| Opportunity | +64% | – | +35% |
Questions
When are the special votes counted?
In the weeks after election day. The Electoral Commission includes them in the official result, due on 27 November 2026.
How many special votes are there in 2026?
About 399,000, the Electoral Commission's estimate.
Can special votes change the election result?
Yes. In 2017, 2020 and 2023 the specials went less to National, ACT and NZ First, and more to the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity, than election night did. That can move a list seat or two and decide close electorates. This year the government's majority is close enough that a single seat decides it.
Is this a forecast?
No. It's a model of what could happen if this year's specials behave like recent ones. Three elections is a small sample, and 2026 needn't look like any of them.
Sources: election-night results and the special vote estimate from the Electoral Commission; past special votes from Wikipedia's election pages.
The simulation's numbers are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with credit to Election HQ.
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